Prediction of Covid-19 Daily Case in Indonesia Using Long Short Term Memory Method

Faisal Dharma Adhinata; Diovianto Putra Rakhmadani

doi:10.34148/teknika.v10i1.328

Faisal Dharma Adhinata Department of Software Engineering, Faculty of Informatics, Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2624-173X
Diovianto Putra Rakhmadani Department of Software Engineering, Faculty of Informatics, Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34148/teknika.v10i1.328

Keywords: Covid-19, machine learning, deep learning, LSTM, MSE

Abstract

The impact of this pandemic affects various sectors in Indonesia, especially in the economic sector, due to the large-scale social restrictions policy to suppress this case's growth. The details of the growth of Covid-19 in Indonesia are still fluctuating and cannot be fully understood. Recently it has been developed by researchers related to the prediction of Covid-19 cases in various countries. One of them is using a machine learning technique approach to predict cases of daily increase Covid-19. However, the use of machine learning techniques results in the MSE error value in the thousands. This high number indicates that the prediction data using the model is still a high error rate compared to the actual data. In this study, we propose a deep learning approach using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method to build a prediction model for the daily increase cases of Covid-19. This study's LSTM model architecture uses the LSTM layer, Dropout layer, Dense, and Linear Activation Function. Based on various hyperparameter experiments, using the number of neurons 10, batch size 32, and epochs 50, the MSE values were 0.0308, RMSE 0.1758, and MAE 0.13. These results prove that the deep learning approach produces a smaller error value than machine learning techniques, even closer to zero.

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